World Cup 2026 Group Stage: AI Probabilities for All 12 Groups
# World Cup 2026 Group Stage: AI Probabilities for All 12 Groups
The 2026 World Cup is underway. With 48 teams across 12 groups, the tournament is bigger than ever. Sezi's model has been analyzing every group — here's what the AI sees.
How the Model Works
Sezi runs 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations for the tournament. Each simulation:
- Samples team strength from ELO distributions
- Simulates every group stage match using Poisson goal models
- Advances top 2 + best 3rd-place teams
- Continues through knockout rounds
The output: calibrated probabilities for every possible outcome.
Key Group Insights
Group A (Mexico, Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire, Curaçao)
Mexico enters as top seed, but Ecuador's strong ELO rating makes this a tight race. The model gives both teams 93%+ chance to advance.
Group E (Germany, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, UAE)
Germany dominates with the highest group win probability in the tournament. The battle for second place is the real story.
Group H (Portugal, Uruguay, Iran, New Zealand)
One of the most balanced groups. Portugal and Uruguay are favorites, but Iran's defensive record could create a surprise.
Why Probabilities, Not Predictions?
Sezi doesn't say 'Team X will win.' It says 'Team X has a 65% chance to win.' This distinction is important — it reflects the inherent uncertainty in football. A 65% favorite still loses 35% of the time.
Explore All Groups
→ [Full group analysis on Sezi](/dunya-kupasi) — updated with live match results.
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