1X2 win probability
Calibrated home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Ligue 1's smaller 18-club format has tightened the table since the restructure, with one dominant side still setting the pace while chasing clubs lean on attacking output to close the gap. Sezi's model tracks that shifting form week to week rather than anchoring to preseason expectations.
Each fixture gets a full 1X2 probability — home, draw, away — from a Poisson-based score model and Monte Carlo simulation, plus both-teams-to-score and over/under 2.5 goals. It's a calibrated read, not a tip: the numbers behind every percentage are shown alongside it.
No Ligue 1 fixtures in the model's current window. Check back closer to matchday, or see the full predictions hub for other leagues.
Nice4–1Saint-Étienne
Saint-Étienne0–0Nice
Lille0–2Auxerre
Strasbourg5–4Monaco
Lyon0–4Lens
Calibrated home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.