1X2 win probability
Calibrated home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
La Liga's identity is built on possession and positional structure — a league where territorial dominance doesn't always convert to goals in a straight line. Sezi's model weighs expected goals (xG) alongside raw shot counts precisely because possession share alone overstates a team's real edge.
Every fixture gets a calibrated 1X2 probability — home, draw and away — from a Poisson-based score model refined with Monte Carlo simulation, plus both-teams-to-score and over/under 2.5 goals. The read is a probability, not a promise: Sezi shows the data behind every number instead of a single confident tip.
No La Liga fixtures in the model's current window. Check back closer to matchday, or see the full predictions hub for other leagues.
Villarreal5–1Atlético
Girona1–1Elche
Espanyol1–1R. Sociedad
Celta1–0Sevilla
Real Madrid4–2Athletic
Calibrated home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.