1X2 win probability
Modelled home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
La Liga's identity is built on possession and positional structure — a league where territorial dominance doesn't always convert to goals in a straight line. Sezi's model weighs expected goals (xG) alongside raw shot counts precisely because possession share alone overstates a team's real edge.
Every fixture gets a calibrated 1X2 probability — home, draw and away — from a Poisson-based score model refined with Monte Carlo simulation, plus both-teams-to-score and over/under 2.5 goals. The read is a probability, not a promise: Sezi shows the data behind every number instead of a single confident tip.
R. Sociedad·
CeltaHome49%Draw26%Away25%
Betis·
Real MadridHome22%Draw23%Away55%
Athletic·
AtléticoHome32%Draw27%Away41%
Rayo·
Racing SantanderHome42%Draw27%Away31%
Villarreal·DDeportivoHome69%Draw18%Away14%
Valencia·
BarcelonaHome13%Draw17%Away70%
Alavés·
OsasunaHome37%Draw29%Away34%
Málaga·
LevanteHome37%Draw27%Away36%
Espanyol·
SevillaHome39%Draw28%Away33%
Getafe·CeltaHome38%Draw28%Away34%Barcelona5–2RayoOsasuna1–0GetafeCelta0–2AthleticReal Madrid4–0MálagaModelled home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.