1X2 win probability
Calibrated home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Europa League fields blend clubs dropping down from the Champions League with the strongest sides from mid-tier domestic leagues — a mix that produces more variance than a typical domestic fixture. Sezi's model treats that variance as a calibration problem, not something to paper over with a confident-sounding pick.
Every fixture gets a calibrated 1X2 probability — home, draw, away — from a Poisson-based score model and Monte Carlo simulation, plus both-teams-to-score and over/under 2.5 goals reads. Later knockout rounds tend to sharpen the model's read as the sample of current-squad matches grows.
No Europa League fixtures in the model's current window. Check back closer to matchday, or see the full predictions hub for other leagues.
Freiburg0–3Aston Villa
Freiburg3–1Braga
Aston Villa4–0Nott'm Forest
Nott'm Forest1–0Aston VillaBraga2–1FreiburgCalibrated home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.