1X2 win probability
Calibrated home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
The 36-team single-table league phase mixes squads with wildly different domestic contexts, which makes a like-for-like form comparison unreliable on its own. Sezi normalizes each team's attacking and defensive output before modelling a fixture, so a result against a weaker domestic league doesn't inflate the read.
Every fixture gets a full 1X2 probability — home, draw, away — from a Poisson-based score model and Monte Carlo simulation, alongside both-teams-to-score and over/under 2.5 goals. Midweek European nights swing on fine margins; the model's job is to show the probability behind them, not to promise a result.
No Champions League fixtures in the model's current window. Check back closer to matchday, or see the full predictions hub for other leagues.
PSG1–1Arsenal
Bayern1–1PSGArsenal1–0Atlético
Atlético1–1ArsenalPSG5–4BayernCalibrated home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.