1X2 win probability
Modelled home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
The Bundesliga runs the highest average goals-per-game of Europe's top five leagues, driven by high pressing and vertical transitions — a pace that makes over/under and both-teams-to-score markets especially informative alongside the standard win-draw-away split. Sezi's model accounts for that tempo directly in its expected-goals inputs.
Every fixture gets a calibrated home/draw/away probability from a Poisson-based score model and Monte Carlo simulation, plus most-likely scorelines and goals-market reads. The output is a probability and the data behind it, never a guaranteed result.
Stuttgart·
CologneHome65%Draw18%Away17%
Leverkusen·
UnionHome79%Draw14%Away8%
M'gladbach·
ElversbergHome44%Draw23%Away33%
SC Paderborn 07·
FreiburgHome41%Draw21%Away38%
Hoffenheim·
DortmundHome13%Draw17%Away69%
Werder·
LeipzigHome18%Draw21%Away61%
Schalke 04·
Bayern MunichHome7%Draw12%Away82%
Frankfurt·
AugsburgHome49%Draw24%Away27%Union·Schalke 04Home52%Draw25%Away22%Augsburg3–0Schalke 04Freiburg4–1WerderDortmund2–0Hamburg SVHSElversberg3–2LeverkusenLeipzig3–0M'gladbachModelled home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.